Saturday, April 11, 2015

To beat Oracle, find jurors who care about Leisure Suit Larry not Larry Ellison


 As Oracle predatory business practices make more customers upset, these business's will grow. Aivars Lode avantce

To beat Oracle, find jurors who care about Leisure Suit Larry not Larry Ellison 

By | Simon Sharwood 27th February 2015 04:00 

Support upstart Rimini Street's secret allies are Nevada jurors
When you kick a giant in the shins and threaten to cut it off at the knees, do it in a jurisdiction you believe will provide you with a sympathetic jury.
That's the strategy advised by Seth Ravin, founder and CEO of third-party application support outfit Rimini Street.

The ten year-old company is an irritant to Oracle and SAP because it supports their applications for rather less than the software titans like to charge in their maintenance agreements. Maintenance and support are the sweet, low-hanging plums of the software garden, so the pair don't take kindly to those who offer their customers alternative arrangements.
That stance, Ravin says, is why Rimini Street and Oracle ended up in court, with Big Red emerging in the stronger position after recent clashes.
Ravin reckons a court clash was inevitable, likening Oracle's litigation to the music industry's attempts to find court-ordered ways to crimp early online music distribution services. From those battles, Ravin's version of history goes, iTunes and other services emerged.
The CEO says Rimini Street predicted the clashes it had with Oracle, and even prepared for them by choosing the ground on which they would be fought. The company's Las Vegas, Nevada, global HQ was therefore chosen partly because the state's pool of jurors knows little about the technology industry. Ravin said California juries are more likely to have heard of Oracle and approve of the company because it is such a large employer. Bay Area juries, he added, think they are technology experts.
But Las Vegas jurors know little of technology, making them perhaps more open-minded if Rimini Street ends up in court.
Ravin's not staking his company's success on this strategy: he feels cheaper and better support are what puts food on the table and enough zeroes on the bottom line to head for an IPO. And there's a good few zeroes there: the company recently announced it's cracked US$100m annual revenue and did so after $12m of initial investments.
A newly-launched Australian office will help kick that along, down under and elsewhere in Asia.


IBM Pumps $4 Billion Into Cloud and Mobile Initiatives


Hard to make the numbers for the legacy IT players. Aivars Lode avantce

IBM Pumps $4 Billion Into Cloud and Mobile Initiatives

Tech company shifts spending plans to target faster-growing segments


International Business Machines Corp. is in the same bind as many of its corporate-tech peers: how to foster fast-growing but unproven initiatives while lucrative older businesses are slowing down. Having identified a set of promising new directions, the company plans to invest more in them.
At an annual meeting with analysts Thursday, the company said it will shift $4 billion in 2015 spending to what it calls the “strategic imperatives” of cloud, analytics, mobile, social and security technologies.
The spending plan, in turn, has prompted IBM Chief Executive Virginia Rometty to set a new financial target for those faster-growth segments: $40 billion in combined annual revenue by 2018, or more than 40% of the company’s expected total revenue.
It is an ambitious goal. Those businesses generated $25 billion in revenue last year, or 27% of total revenue, though the trend line has been rising for both figures.
“We did an awful lot last year,” Ms. Rometty said in an interview before the meeting. “We’ve reinvented this company one more time.”
But more needs to be done to counteract declines in other IBM businesses. The company said in January that total revenue from continuing operations declined 6% to $92.8 billion in 2014 and projected that total revenue wouldn’t grow in 2015.
The company also has run into a stiff headwind from the rising value of the dollar, which hurts IBM’s income statement when sales made abroad are converted into U.S. currency. IBM, while reaffirming its 2015 outlook, on Thursday boosted its estimate for foreign-exchange rates on its revenue growth. A rise in the value of the dollar versus foreign currencies has reduced the value of revenue IBM takes in abroad and converts to U.S. currency.
For its current quarter, IBM now expects currency to hurt revenue growth by more than 7 percentage points, above the hit of 6 to 7 points it projected in January. For the full year, IBM is expecting a foreign-exchange impact of more than 6 points, above previous projections for an impact of 5 to 6 points.
On Thursday, Ms. Rometty described the currency difficulties the company is facing as among the most extensive in recent memory.
The company in 2014 completed the sale to Lenovo Group Ltd. of its System X business in commodity-style servers; it had previously sold its personal-computer business to the Chinese company. IBM said Thursday that it continues to expect a 4-percentage-point impact to revenue growth in each of the first three quarters of 2015 because of the System X divestiture.
Shares in IBM fell 1.2% to $160.87 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Last October, IBM abandoned what turned out to be an overly ambitious long-term target of $20 a share in operating earnings by 2015. In January, it reported $16.53 a share for 2014. It also set a less-specific long-term goal of delivering “low single-digit” percentage growth in revenue and “high single-digit” growth in operating earnings per share.
Based on recent investments and divestitures, Ms. Rometty said before the meeting that she has “great confidence that we can and will achieve the long-term model we put out.”
IBM businesses that have posted lower revenue lately include some classes of technology services and software as well as IBM’s remaining lines of big computers. Besides the System X business, IBM last year also divested itself of its semiconductor-manufacturing business, agreeing to pay Globalfoundries Inc. $1.5 billion to take over the chip operations.
Hardware now accounts for less than 10% of IBM’s total revenue, Ms. Rometty said. The changes have dispensed with businesses that were a drag on earnings, she added.
Among its new priorities, IBM has put particular emphasis on online, or cloud, services. It has said it invested $1.2 billion in data centers to augment those it acquired with SoftLayer Technologies in 2013. It also invested $1 billion to accelerate commercialization of its Watson data-analytics technology.
IBM’s plan to invest $4 billion more on strategic initiatives won’t necessarily require spending cuts in other businesses, Ms. Rometty said. In many cases, she said, the company can take advantage of money freed up by operating at higher efficiency.
The company has taken charges for “rebalancing” its workforce—laying off some workers while hiring others with new skills—but doesn’t expect to reduce overall head count.
“It’s not a cost-cutting exercise,” Ms. Rometty said of the company’s actions. “It’s a very healthy remix.”
Presenters at the analyst meeting in New York, besides Ms. Rometty, included IBM’s chief financial officer, Martin Schroeter, cloud chief Robert LeBlanc and senior vice presidents John Kelly and Steven Mills.

FCC Approves Net Neutrality Rules, Setting Stage For Legal Battle


This will force the likes of Comcast to change business practices. This should be interesting to watch. Aivars Lode avantce

FCC Approves Net Neutrality Rules, Setting Stage For Legal Battle

Telecom, cable industries expected to challenge commission’s 3-2 vote


The Federal Communications Commission set aside two decades of laissez-faire policy Thursday to assert broad authority over the Internet, voting to regulate broadband providers as public utilities and overruling laws in two states that made it harder for cities to offer their own Web service.
Both rulings were setbacks for big telecommunications and cable companies that have invested billions of dollars in their networks and wins for Internet companies that have enjoyed explosive growth as people spend more time online. The moves reflect an evolution from regulators treating the Internet as a technological innovation that needed to be nurtured to a powerful commercial venue with rival constituencies that need to be balanced. 
The commission pledged to use a light touch, and the immediate practical effects of the decisions are limited because companies, regulators and users all agree in principle that traffic shouldn’t be blocked.
Still, the shift in philosophy was notable, with possible implications down the road that are hard to predict. It even drew warnings from Google Inc., which told the White House privately it was making a mistake when President Barack Obama called in November for the approach the FCC adopted on Thursday, .
“The blessing and the curse for the cable industry and the telcos is they have an infrastructure which is absolutely critical to the economy, to education, to health care—far beyond the original use for which they built those networks,” said Blair Levin, who was chief of staff at the FCC in the 1990s and who headed up the agency’s 2010 National Broadband Plan. “The good news is everybody needs it. The bad news is when everybody needs it, the government plays a role.” 
Netflix said the day was a win for consumers. Telecom and cable industry groups said the decisions opened the door to heavy-handed regulation that would hurt innovation. FCC Chairman Tom Wheelershot back at such criticism ahead of the vote, saying, “This is no more a plan to regulate the Internet than the First Amendment is a plan to regulate free speech.” 
Both votes in the Democratic-controlled commission were 3-2 along party lines. In the more closely watched decision, the FCC approved new net neutrality rules that bar Internet service providers from blocking Web traffic or letting them charge websites for priority service. 
The rules also extend the regulator’s reach into the middle of the Internet by saying if there are complaints, the commission will review so-called interconnection deals, which allow companies like Netflix to tie directly into networks like those owned by Comcast. 
The telecom and cable industries said they agree with the principles behind the rules but bristled at the oversight. Verizon, in a statement typed on a Remington typewriter and datelined Feb. 26, 1934, criticized the rules as antiquated and likely to create uncertainty that will hurt innovation. The industries are preparing to fight the rules in court and are backing attempts by Republicans in Congress to supersede them with new legislation.
The FCC has tried for the better part of a decade to find a middle path of using guidelines or rules to enforce net neutrality without going so far as treating broadband as a regulated service under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934.
But those efforts have foundered. In 2010, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C Circuit ruled the commission overstepped when it cited Comcast for slowing down traffic for users of file-sharing sites like BitTorrent. Last year, the same court ruled in favor of Verizon and overturned the FCC’s next attempt to set rules.
In the more recent ruling, the court said the FCC was treating Internet providers like traditional “common carrier” telecommunications services even though it hadn’t classified them as such. The new rules—which reclassify broadband as a Title II service—are an effort to patch that hole. 
“They are asserting the importance of broadband, and they are asserting the importance of the government taking an active role in ensuring that we get deployment, and that it’s open and fair,” Mr. Levin said. 
The FCC’s other decision Thursday was aimed at state laws that make it harder for cities to build or extend publicly owned Internet services. The panel granted petitions by public utilities in Chattanooga, Tenn., and Wilson, N.C., to escape restrictions on expanding such service. About 20 states have passed such laws. 
The FCC justified its preemption of the state laws by referring to its authority to encourage broadband expansion and competition. The decisions don’t affect the other states, but they do set a precedent for consideration of similar petitions in the future. 
“Some states have designed thickets of red tape designed to limit competition,” Mr. Wheeler said Thursday. “We are cutting away that red tape consistent with Congress’s instructions to encourage the deployment of broadband.”
Telecom and cable companies have objected to allowing arms of the government to compete with private business. The cost of building broadband networks to businesses and homes is high, and the laws help protect those investments by ensuring they don’t face competitors that have an unfair advantage, they say. 
Critics also say when local governments make mistakes, taxpayers can get stuck with the bill. The city of Provo, Utah, eventually sold its struggling fiber-optic network to Google for $1.
Republican Commissioner Ajit Pai said that the FCC doesn’t have the legal power to shoot down the laws and would need a clear statement from lawmakers to do so. His fellow Republican, Michael O’Rielly, made a similar argument, saying, “I’m deeply troubled by the policy implications of this order.” 
Nevertheless, public support for firmer oversight of broadband is running high. Concerns about the growing power of giant firms were fanned a year ago when Comcast struck a $45 billion deal to buy fellow Internet provider Time Warner Cable. The FCC received around four million comments on its net-neutrality proposals.
Chairman Wheeler, who disclosed details of the new net neutrality rules earlier this month, received a standing ovation when he entered the commission room ahead of the votes. He reiterated Thursday that the commission is acting only to establish regulatory authority to enforce net neutrality and won’t impose more onerous regulations like price controls. 
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak attended the meeting. On the sidelines, he said that he has only slower DSL service at home and that providers need to be more closely regulated. 
“Broadband is essential, like water,” Mr. Wozniak said.

Salesforce.com F4Q Preview and Partner Survey


Even cloud provider Salesforce.com is underperform becuase it has sold everyone. Aivars Lode avantce

Salesforce.com F4Q Preview and Partner Survey


Rating  UNDERPERFORM
Price Target $47.00
Price $63.74

Our quarterly partner survey suggests F4Q commercial business was solid, though we question large deal traction based on further conversations with market participants. While the company is likely to be at least in line on the income statement excluding FX (>90% of revenue in any Q is booked in prior periods), new subscription billings growth may remain suppressed, with continued elevated cost. We remain Underperform at 41.5x F16 EV/FCF.

Expect Modest Organic New Subscription ACV Growth, cc. While the Street is expecting calculated total billings growth of 24% y/y, we estimate new subscription ACV (license equivalent) growth to be significantly less (high single digit growth). We note that YTD total billings grew 30% vs. our YTD estimate of new subscription ACV growth (equivalent to license growth) at 6%.

4Q = Enterprise Q? Most investors expect this Q to reflect CRM’s efforts over the past 18 mos. to further penetrate the enterprise with large deals, which typically close in the customer’s F4Q (Dec) or the vendor’s (Jan). Given a typical large deal sales cycle of about 12 mos. and 4Q seasonality (about 41% of last year’s new subscription ACV occurred in 4Q), we’d expect any mega deals to materialize (if they do) this period. We haven’t come across any such deals in our field checks, which may hinder much stock appreciation.

Generally positive partner survey. 85 representatives of salesforce.com partner organizations responded to our survey, with generally positive results. We believe the responses are indicative of healthy mid-market transaction flow, though with less visibility to large enterprise. Sales Cloud and Service Cloud were standout growth categories. We note the following highlights from our 15 question survey:

1) For the JanQ, 44% of respondents indicated their CRM related business performed above plan, 41% at plan and 15% below plan. See Chart 11.

2) 60% indicated the company's sense of urgency and promotional activity was typical vs. other Jan ending Qs. 35% more aggressive, 5% less.

3) Several partners commented on major changes to the partner program this year, including new annual membership fees for some partners. The general feedback suggests a culling of the program, favoring the larger, more strategic partners.

Valuation/Risks
Our $47 PT is based on our DCF analysis. Key risks include accelerated growth through enterprise adoption, or further penetration into markets beyond SFA.

‘Piggybackers’ Hitch Themselves to Airbnb, Uber


Piggy back business on airbnb and uber. Aivars Lode avantce

‘Piggybackers’ Hitch Themselves to Airbnb, Uber

Derivative startups, pegged to others’ success, are springing up faster than ever
Charlie Wells joins MoneyBeat to discuss startups built around marketplace startups. Photo: Getty

By Charlie Wells 
Feb. 18, 2015 7:30 p.m. ET 

Plenty of people dream of starting businesses that transform a marketplace, and shake up the world. But more entrepreneurs are building so-called derivative startups, or businesses pegged to others’ success.
At least half a dozen new businesses have surfaced in the past three years pegged to the short-term rental marketplace Airbnb of San Francisco, for instance. There is Guesty of Tel Aviv; Keycafe of Vancouver; Proprly of New York; and Guesthop and Pillow of San Francisco, to name a few. All see an opportunity to earn revenue by helping manage the over one million properties listed on six-year-old Airbnb’s website.
Similarly, the rise of San Francisco-based ride-sharing services Uber and Lyft has spawned San Francisco-based Breeze and HyreCar, both founded in 2014. Each offers to lease vehicles to would-be Uber and Lyft drivers in multiple cities around the country.

Broadly speaking, these derivative businesses seek to build out a surrounding “ecosystem” much like smaller software companies built products and services on top of Microsoft Windows in the 1990s, according to Steve Blank, a veteran technology entrepreneur and lecturer at the University of California at Berkeley, New York University and Stanford.
“This is a gold rush,” said Tony Tjan, chief executive of Cue Ball, a Boston venture-capital firm. “You can either mine for gold like Uber or Airbnb, or you can sell the pots, the pans, and the Levi jeans.”
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“People might consider these companies as piggybackers, but I don’t see us that way,” added Amiad Soto, co-founder of Guesty, the Israeli startup that helps Airbnb’s users manage properties. “We are helping Airbnb grow, helping them stay consistent.”

Sean Conway, right, is CEO and co-founder of Pillow, which helps people manage short-term rental properties, taking a 15% cut of the rental fee. Photo: Laura Morton for The Wall Street Journal 
To be sure, new companies built around existing companies have existed for nearly as long as there have been companies. But the speed at which today’s derivative startups are springing up on top of others is faster than ever before. “It used to be that you needed to become an established enterprise company before anybody would build on your platform,” said Ethan Kurzweil, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners in Menlo Park, Calif.
Social media is shrinking that time frame, as is the proliferation of new businesses cropping up around the sharing-economy marketplaces such as Uber and Airbnb.
Given that startups are inherently risky, the breed of derivative startups is even more so. “The prima facie argument is that you are simply doubling risk,” said G. Felda Hardymon, a professor at Harvard Business School. “Even though you may create a successful product, the underlying companies themselves may not be successful.”
“The further away you get from the core consumer service, the more dangerous it gets,” added SherpaVentures’ Scott Stanford, an early Uber investor.
Entrepreneurs such as Sean Conway of San Francisco sometimes find they walk a fine line by capitalizing on the success of other existing firms.
Last year, the 30-year-old Mr. Conway founded with partners a 20-employee firm that caters to users of Airbnb, as well as its competitors VRBO and HomeAway, by helping people to set appropriate rental prices for their properties, providing 24-7 support during a stay, and cleaning. Mr. Conway’s startup collects a 15% cut of the rental fee.
He keeps very close ties with Airbnb. He personally visits its headquarters—just a few blocks from his own offices—several times a month, for instance.
But after six months of conversations with staffers at his own firm, he began to realize that the startup, known as AirEnvy, had a significant problem: its name.
“The ‘Air’ made it sound too connected to Airbnb,” he said, adding that “it’s important for us to be a stand-alone brand.” So, last month, he changed his business’s name to Pillow.
Indeed, one issue for entrepreneurs building derivative startups to consider is: “Are you going to bet on one platform, or are you going to bet on the whole market?” said Hunter Walk, a partner at San Francisco venture firm Homebrew, an investor in Pillow.
Derivative startups will likely hold a strong allure for some investors, especially those who feel they may have missed the boat by failing to invest in, say, Uber, which is just five years old and valued at more than $40 billion.
Fabrice Grinda is among those who felt he made a mistake by not investing in Uber’s last fundraising round, when, as he put it, “it was so clear that Uber was going to become a massive company.”
Yet, Breeze, a year-old San Francisco firm, offered him another route to bet on Uber’s growth: it leases cars at $195 a week to aspiring Uber and Lyft drivers.
So Mr. Grinda invested $100,000 in Breeze last year, in exchange for an equity stake. He has since helped it to raise more than $1 million in additional funding from so-called angel investors. Serial entrepreneur Mark Cuban also invests in the company. Breeze now has 30 employees and operates in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle, according to its founder, Jeffrey Pang, who declined to specify the firm’s revenue or say whether it is breaking even.
One of the biggest risks for derivative startups is that their host companies could quickly expand their own offerings, becoming rivals overnight. In late 2013, Uber itself started joining with third-party lenders who could provide financing options for drivers—and that, too, could theoretically undercut Breeze’s business model. Uber is adding 50,000 new drivers a month.
Last spring, Uber began deactivating vehicles leased through Breeze because of what an Uber spokeswoman described as “regulatory ambiguity.” In particular, Uber executives were uncomfortable with the fact that Breeze’s rentals were registered to Breeze, rather than to the Uber drivers using them, she said. 
The Uber executives worried that Breeze’s model might prevent Uber from being able to comply with ridesharing regulations in California, where Breeze operates.
So Breeze changed its business model: Its cars would be registered to the Uber drivers themselves. And last June, Uber stopped blocking Breeze vehicles.
The Uber spokeswoman declined to comment on whether it would expand into vehicle leasing or similar new lines of business. But Mr. Grinda, the Breeze investor, says he believes Uber will likely be too busy dealing with its own regulatory issues, and with direct competitors, to pose a significant threat to Breeze.

Private cloud's very public failure


Why private cloud is set to fall. Aivars Lode avantce

Private cloud's very public failure

By Matt Asay February 10, 2015, 11:56 AM PST 

Private clouds are doomed to fail, and OpenStack may not be the answer. Matt Asay explains. 

No wonder private cloud vendors have started calling themselves "hybrid" clouds: the private cloud vision has failed -- utterly and completely.
Gartner analyst Tom Bittman asked why 95% of private clouds are failing, but the answer seems clear: the very notion of a privately provisioned cloud service is contradictory and nearly always doomed.
Unfortunately, the odds of failure may skyrocket when enterprises turn to OpenStack.
Fail early, fail often
Roughly five years ago, Amazon Web Services (AWS) executive Andy Jassy spotlighted the problem with private clouds: "Companies usually are not able to provision accurately the amount of data center capacity that they require, and this problem recurs when they create their own internal cloud infrastructure."
In theory, it shouldn't be this way. As Dean Hampstead told me, "A large company should be able to do private cloud cheaper than public." And, at some point, companies will find it advantageous to bring computing in-house at a certain scale. As Twitter's Chris Aniszczyk suggested, "Private cloud benefit can be relative to size/scale."
But probably not for your company... or most. 
If the whole purpose of cloud computing is to enable elasticity of resources to drive business flexibility, setting up an internal cloud (as opposed to provisioning data center resources) simply won't get an enterprise far. Companies often dress up virtualization as cloud and predictably fail to get promised cloud benefits.
As Apprenda's Chris Gaun pointed out:
"The[re] are... traps organizations fall into if when they decide to use VMs + automation (like Chef/Puppet/VMware). This route is attractive to customer specifically because it relies heavily on virtualization, it lets anything run inside of it, is very infrastructure focused, and doesn't require changing how you do business. While this will feel more comfortable to customers, it can also lead to failure."
And oh, such spectacular private cloud failures there are. 
Private cloud lets enterprises pretend to be innovative, embracing pseudo-cloud computing even as they dress up antiquated IT in fancy nomenclature. 
But when Gartner surveyed enterprises that had deployed private clouds, only 5% claimed success:
Private cloud deployment
Unfortunately, these failures are nearly guaranteed for those determined to go it alone with OpenStack, the reigning champion of open-source clouds, according to a recent Zenoss survey.
OpenStack not the solution
Popularity, however, doesn't translate into successful. 
As I've written before, OpenStack's community strength and popularity is also its Achilles Heel. An increasing number of contributing companies are trying to steer OpenStack in highly divergent directions, making it hard for the newbie to figure out how to successfully use OpenStack. No wonder, then, that Joyent's Bryan Cantrill hinted that the widespread failure of private clouds may be "due to OpenStack complexities."
He may be onto something.
In fact, things have gotten so bad, as early OpenStack pioneer Randy Bias highlighted, that companies looking to embrace "vanilla OpenStack" won't find any stock distribution. There is none. 
Instead, OpenStack continues to evolve at a frantic pace, and not in any consistent, singular direction. There's no meaningful definition of "OpenStack," as the components a particular vendor or enterprise can or should use will vary considerably.
Though companies look to OpenStack to reduce vendor lock-in and accelerate innovation, the reality, said Bias, is that any successful OpenStack deployment necessarily brings proprietary baggage with it. The right strategy, he noted, is to "Dial into the right level of 'lock-in' that you are comfortable with from a strategic point of view that meets the business requirements."
The problem for would-be private cloud builders, however, is that this simply exacerbates the complexity that already plagues them. 
Bringing order to private cloud chaos
It may be that a company like Red Hat will be able to give enterprises a trusted source for OpenStack, as the company has done for Linux. Or maybe HP or Mirantis will fill that role, as both rival Red Hat's contributions to the OpenStack code base. 
But even if they succeed in streamlining the OpenStack experience, there's a far more profound problem with the private cloud that OpenStack and its peers can't solve: the very idea behind a "private cloud" is broken. While not all applications can or should run on public clouds like AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud Platform, an ever-increasing percentage of applications are finding their way to public clouds, while enterprise IT struggles to build effective clouds.
Ultimately, line of business executives and developers may solve this issue for IT by simply refusing to use less efficient resources, whether called "data center" or "private cloud." In this race for convenience, anything that feels harder than the public cloud seems certain to fail.

CA: Relatively Stable, But Eventually Need Better


Legacy companies are finding it harder to make their numbers. Aivars Lode avantce

CA: Relatively Stable, But Eventually Need Better
Rating  BUY
Price Target $39.00
Price $31.67
CA reported F3Q results largely in line with modest expectations, though bookings were well below consensus estimates (but above our number). F15 cc guidance was left largely intact, though the bottom line will be better (due to a lower tax rate). Initial F16 guidance calls for revenue to decline on a cc basis even with the renewal portfolio increasing.

Details. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.67 on revenue of $1.091B compared to consensus numbers of $0.60 and $1.092B, while bookings of $1.067B beat our estimate of $1.037B, but was much lower than what we view as a misleading consensus estimate of $1.400B. F15 guidance was left largely intact. Initial F16 guidance is for revenue to decline on a cc basis and for margins to be similar to F15.

Underlying Business Momentum Seems to be Building, But Not Yet in Numbers. Our field data along with better new business growth relative to renewals suggests underlying business momentum, but revenue continues to decline slightly, which is expected to persist into next year. This could portend better results than anticipated at some point over the next year. We’ll have to wait and see. A 3.2% dividend yield in a volatile market should make this wait palatable for some.

Bookings Explained. Bookings are largely driven by the timing of renewals, rather than a simple year-over-year calculation. We explain this further herein.

Valuation/Risks
We continue to rate CA a Buy with a $40 price target based on our DCF. Risks include achieving sufficient ROI, business model complexity, and diminished growth in the mainframe market.